PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

surf

0xfd2b117412a698f322b0cd18d6827dad262b8e50

Realised P&L
$35.3k
Volume
$30.06M
Markets traded
793
Open portfolio
$362.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded793
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration42.7% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration27.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) · Max Holloway0.7001.000$100.0k+$30.0k
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina? · No0.9631.000$87.2k+$3.2k
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · Yes0.1561.000$41.5k+$35.0k
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? · No0.9911.000$30.0k+$270.00
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals · No0.6301.000$24.8k+$9.1k
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.3231.000$22.0k+$14.9k
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? · No0.9511.000$14.8k+$733.06
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? · No0.1101.000$12.7k+$11.3k
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? · No0.2291.000$10.0k+$7.7k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.8701.000$6.0k+$776.69
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9200.973$5.2k+$278.53
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? · Yes0.3701.000$1.7k+$1.1k
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals · No0.7501.000$1.5k+$383.35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2440.225$1.5k$131.39
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? · Yes0.7491.000$1.1k+$278.08

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-14 20:17Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.87$5.2k
09-14 15:07Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?BUY0.2498461791$776.72
09-14 15:07Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?BUY0.24$866.31
07-29 17:39Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL0.244$3.6k
07-29 17:21Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL0.245$3.0k
07-29 17:21Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL0.2458042733$3.7k
07-29 17:21Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL0.236187866$3.5k
07-29 04:04Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.127$0.64
07-29 04:04Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.194$0.97
07-29 04:04Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.194$0.97
07-29 04:04Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.127$0.64
07-29 04:04Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.127$0.64
07-29 04:04Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.194$0.97
07-29 04:04Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.127$0.64
07-29 04:04Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY0.194$0.97