PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

surf

0xfd2b117412a698f322b0cd18d6827dad262b8e50

Realised P&L
$32.4k
Volume
$28.68M
Markets traded
797
Open portfolio
$192.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded797
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration45.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration91.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.5110.635$175.6k+$34.2k
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No0.7871.000$10.9k+$2.3k
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9200.980$5.2k+$315.67
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2440.135$906.99−$736.05
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026? · No0.8500.982$158.42+$21.29
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · Yes0.3660.029$74.38−$849.14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.1900.175$8.75−$0.75
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.1270.162$6.46+$1.38
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.1940.155$6.20−$1.56
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.4100.365$3.65−$0.45
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5300.145$1.45−$3.85
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? · No0.3890.000$0.00−$19.7k
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? · Yes0.0320.000$0.00−$2.6k
Will Robert Irwin & Witney Carson win Dancing with the Stars Season 34? · No0.9430.000$0.00−$42.45
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? · Yes0.1020.000$0.00−$8.3k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-30 20:06Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.19$9.50
10-30 15:13Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.41$4.10
10-28 03:42Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.51$2.5k
10-01 17:31Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.23$5.29
10-01 17:31Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.23$931.51
10-01 17:31Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.22$4.40
10-01 17:30Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.78912879$7.9k
10-01 17:30Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.79$7.90
10-01 17:30Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.7699433749$679.86
09-28 16:59Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?BUY0.88$8.80
09-28 16:59Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?BUY0.88$8.80
09-28 16:59Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?BUY0.88$8.80
09-28 16:59Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?BUY0.88$8.80
09-28 16:59Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?BUY0.88$8.80
09-28 16:59Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?BUY0.88$8.80