0xfd022428Bbc38a5280094C3734fef09Cefe7fb6A-1740768609191
0xfd022428bbc38a5280094c3734fef09cefe7fb6a
- Realised P&L
- $148.77
- Volume
- $39.6k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $2.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$460.52at 0.471Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$160.57at 0.563Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$107.36at 0.450Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$102.74at 0.782Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- +$73.40at 0.630US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 15:53 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.2492114793 | $8.00 |
| 10-21 15:52 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.2699999992 | $28.00 |
| 10-21 15:50 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1192420623 | $88.00 |
| 10-21 15:49 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.1865432372 | $8.00 |
| 10-21 15:49 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1766702871 | $88.00 |
| 10-21 15:48 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1158059468 | $88.80 |
| 10-16 15:46 | GTA 6 launch postponed again? | SELL | 0.0354099515 | $11.02 |
| 10-15 08:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $58.72 |
| 10-15 08:39 | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? | SELL | 0.584 | $33.29 |
| 10-07 13:15 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.449999997 | $38.00 |
| 10-07 13:05 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.65 | $24.21 |
| 10-01 15:47 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.26 | $32.25 |
| 09-30 11:05 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1649999995 | $38.00 |
| 09-30 11:04 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $18.88 |
| 09-30 11:03 | Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? | BUY | 0.1659999996 | $18.88 |