poli.monaco
0xf767fa803ef11754c87175515f071eb487b261df
- Realised P&L
- $28.7k
- Volume
- $414.7k
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $50.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$24.6kat 0.356MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$13.5kat 0.305Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
- +$9.4kat 0.399Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
- +$2.7kat 0.744Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
- +$2.3kat 0.528Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 17:10 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.5529153313 | $3.1k |
| 10-31 14:03 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $194.70 |
| 10-31 13:53 | Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.91 | $40.44 |
| 10-31 13:53 | Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.89 | $17.80 |
| 10-31 13:52 | Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.8452521847 | $368.52 |
| 10-31 13:52 | Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | BUY | 0.8734351223 | $1.0k |
| 10-28 16:05 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.882 | $621.99 |
| 10-22 18:22 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.003 | $1.56 |
| 10-20 22:23 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.8899996084 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 22:23 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.8899999836 | $19.00 |
| 10-20 22:22 | Will there be no Hormuz agreement? | BUY | 0.8896850238 | $3.7k |
| 10-20 10:45 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2629193228 | $609.42 |
| 10-19 13:29 | Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $44.95 |
| 10-19 13:28 | Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $64.56 |
| 10-19 13:26 | Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026? | SELL | 0.219013152 | $122.06 |