sddx4
0xf51c51c7f5ecf091c71c3a81082912b0bd77f9f3
- Realised P&L
- $16.22
- Volume
- $17.6k
- Markets traded
- 189
- Open portfolio
- $130.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded189
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.960 | 0.957 | $35.40 | −$0.13 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? · No | 0.973 | 0.945 | $30.22 | −$0.91 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · No | 0.982 | 0.975 | $29.23 | −$0.23 |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? · No | 0.985 | 0.971 | $24.26 | −$0.36 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? · No | 0.933 | 0.929 | $7.45 | −$0.03 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% before 2027? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.024 | $2.40 | −$16.60 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.005 | $2.00 | −$10.79 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.10 |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.40at 0.800Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?
- +$7.23at 0.880Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- +$6.47at 0.853Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$5.75at 0.820US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$5.10at 0.810Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 03:10 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on September 11? | SELL | 0.81 | $4.21 |
| 09-06 02:50 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.94 | $20.68 |
| 08-30 09:37 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.978 | $34.23 |
| 08-22 02:44 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.034 | $1.36 |
| 08-18 03:23 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.981 | $35.32 |
| 08-08 06:33 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.973 | $31.14 |
| 08-04 06:59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $55 in August? | BUY | 0.989 | $22.25 |
| 07-31 14:28 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July? | SELL | 0.971 | $31.07 |
| 07-24 05:05 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.60 |
| 07-24 05:05 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? | SELL | 0.826 | $9.90 |
| 07-24 05:04 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? | SELL | 0.827 | $22.30 |
| 06-17 04:46 | US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.50 |
| 06-16 04:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.79 | $33.18 |
| 06-09 07:25 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 9? | BUY | 0.984 | $19.68 |
| 05-26 06:00 | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.714 | $30.87 |