PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0xECF5456ABC1b6C324a55a9c45d75D63951f6B7af-1780735171940

0xecf5456abc1b6c324a55a9c45d75d63951f6b7af

Realised P&L
$-448.49
Volume
$53.1k
Markets traded
55
Open portfolio
$1.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded55
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample14 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)35.7%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration29.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0600.304$552.36+$443.52
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? · Yes0.2501.000$407.40+$305.55
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.1230.236$206.56+$98.67
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.3330.460$137.30+$37.80
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1510.207$137.14+$37.34
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? · No0.1000.090$105.37$11.41
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.2000.135$69.09$33.27
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No0.2650.176$67.68$33.87
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.3090.160$53.16$49.56
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.0760.069$51.65$5.88
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · Yes0.1400.065$46.75$53.94
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.2400.065$26.37$70.98
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · No0.3300.455$11.41+$3.13
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3300.125$9.31$15.27
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027? · Yes0.1500.105$4.17$1.79

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-13 13:12Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?BUY0.25$1.69
07-13 13:12Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?BUY0.24$4.80
07-13 13:11Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?BUY0.22$32.60
07-13 13:10Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?BUY0.21$4.20
07-13 13:10Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?BUY0.21$4.20
07-13 13:09Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?BUY0.21$4.20
07-13 13:09Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?BUY0.2068061322$12.95
07-13 13:09Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?BUY0.209999993$17.63
07-13 13:08Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?BUY0.2$7.30
07-13 13:08Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?BUY0.1953518136$16.79
06-21 06:20US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?SELL0.9661990148$107.88
06-21 06:20US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?SELL0.9671895548$107.97
06-21 06:19US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?SELL0.967$107.95
06-21 06:19US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?SELL0.9663370958$107.87
06-21 06:19US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?SELL0.9663370958$107.87