0xECF5456ABC1b6C324a55a9c45d75D63951f6B7af-1780735171940
0xecf5456abc1b6c324a55a9c45d75d63951f6b7af
- Realised P&L
- $-448.49
- Volume
- $53.1k
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$658.52at 0.140Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
- +$612.51at 0.134US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
- +$546.90at 0.150US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
- +$169.78at 0.090Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
- +$3.34at 0.182Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 13:12 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.69 |
| 07-13 13:12 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | BUY | 0.24 | $4.80 |
| 07-13 13:11 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | BUY | 0.22 | $32.60 |
| 07-13 13:10 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | BUY | 0.21 | $4.20 |
| 07-13 13:10 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | BUY | 0.21 | $4.20 |
| 07-13 13:09 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | BUY | 0.21 | $4.20 |
| 07-13 13:09 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | BUY | 0.2068061322 | $12.95 |
| 07-13 13:09 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | BUY | 0.209999993 | $17.63 |
| 07-13 13:08 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | BUY | 0.2 | $7.30 |
| 07-13 13:08 | Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12? | BUY | 0.1953518136 | $16.79 |
| 06-21 06:20 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.9661990148 | $107.88 |
| 06-21 06:20 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.9671895548 | $107.97 |
| 06-21 06:19 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.967 | $107.95 |
| 06-21 06:19 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.9663370958 | $107.87 |
| 06-21 06:19 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.9663370958 | $107.87 |