ychwuw
0xe8fd2fe69c68bb5caf60a2d846a821cc13b3f411
- Realised P&L
- $675.21
- Volume
- $69.8k
- Markets traded
- 49
- Open portfolio
- $481.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded49
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample38 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)97.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? · No | 0.962 | 0.985 | $352.77 | +$8.24 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? · No | 0.972 | 0.983 | $124.18 | +$1.27 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.024 | $3.39 | +$0.07 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.007 | $1.50 | −$4.28 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.20 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.111 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$66.60 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$54.00 |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.60 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.00 |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.40 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$504.00at 0.160Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$308.55at 0.714Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?
- +$279.75at 0.744Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?
- +$276.08at 0.744Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
- +$263.24at 0.921Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 18:22 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.9724221853 | $122.90 |
| 08-10 18:07 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $52.08 |
| 08-10 18:07 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.027 | $1.46 |
| 08-10 18:05 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.027 | $4.32 |
| 08-10 18:04 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.023 | $0.01 |
| 08-10 18:04 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $153.92 |
| 08-10 18:01 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.023 | $3.31 |
| 08-10 18:01 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.962 | $138.53 |
| 06-25 03:19 | Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? | SELL | 0.999 | $149.85 |
| 06-25 03:17 | Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.9k |
| 06-25 01:59 | Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? | BUY | 0.999 | $149.85 |
| 06-24 23:22 | Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 06-24 23:22 | Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.999 | $228.87 |
| 06-24 23:21 | Will the announcers say "Trump" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 06-24 23:21 | Will the announcers say "Hattrick” or “Hat Trick" during the Scotland vs Brazil FIFA World Cup Match? | BUY | 0.999 | $120.67 |