PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Nostdam

0xe732156a2d84cdfb4de831d3f11a22899e49898f

Realised P&L
$61.0k
Volume
$5.09M
Markets traded
3,289
Open portfolio
$926.25

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded3,289
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration20.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration45.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes0.3740.378$420.66+$4.14
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6700.525$131.24$36.25
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027? · No0.6400.845$122.69+$29.77
Will "Forgotten Island" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? · No0.6170.665$64.17+$4.64
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? · No0.6480.895$58.00+$16.02
Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0470.044$35.72$2.84
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? · Yes0.0260.032$21.53+$3.91
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.1230.082$17.59$8.82
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.1470.034$15.83$52.52
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4410.541$10.65+$1.98
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.1300.005$4.87$110.43
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.0720.059$4.62$1.07
Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.1080.040$4.35$7.59
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? · Yes0.2860.056$2.94$12.25
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026? · No0.4500.100$2.80$9.80

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-19 21:46Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?BUY0.489119098$55.52
09-19 20:19Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?SELL0.2106092241$56.49
09-19 18:59Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?SELL0.215$21.50
09-19 16:13Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1?BUY0.33$15.91
09-19 16:13Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?BUY0.377$82.94
09-19 04:37Will "Forgotten Island" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?BUY0.6168908695$59.52
09-18 03:42Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m?BUY0.36$47.03
09-17 23:38Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m?SELL0.45$90.31
09-17 01:53Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m?BUY0.1553421833$63.42
09-15 02:02Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?BUY0.61$122.00
09-14 23:56Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?SELL0.1906$19.06
09-13 04:15Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?BUY0.0185066258$2.23
09-12 01:42Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?SELL0.46$51.52
09-11 00:11Will "Runner" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?BUY0.2376923077$6.18
09-11 00:11Will "Runner" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3m?BUY0.8285611141$170.76