0xe359d9e95ac482bcb3e9be75fe5426edaa056b63
0xe359d9e95ac482bcb3e9be75fe5426edaa056b63
- Realised P&L
- $8.89
- Volume
- $256.49
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $8.21
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.835 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.325 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.349 | $1.29 | +$0.29 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.875 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.745 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.715 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.425 | $0.56 | −$0.44 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.055 | $0.26 | −$0.74 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.055 | $0.20 | −$1.78 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$4.12at 0.333Will Moonshot be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of August 2026?
- +$2.96at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
- +$2.82at 0.268Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 01:52 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 17:49 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 09:44 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:26 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,050 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 10:51 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 01:42 | Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 14:33 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 01:10 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 16:05 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on October 2? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:38 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 23:25 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 21:03 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 12:19 | Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 04:07 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 20:06 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |