0xe20521a52b0f20a75d5fcd2b7df0e003997865e9
0xe20521a52b0f20a75d5fcd2b7df0e003997865e9
- Realised P&L
- $-3.28
- Volume
- $296.92
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $8.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.945 | $2.89 | +$1.36 |
| Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $183 Week of September 28 2026? · No | 0.400 | 0.420 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.755 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.275 | $0.98 | −$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.675 | $0.87 | −$0.13 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.495 | $0.65 | −$0.35 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.465 | $0.60 | −$0.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
- +$5.33at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$2.39at 0.462Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?
- +$2.29at 0.472Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 05:38 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 21:36 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 00:08 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 15:30 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 06:59 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $183 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 22:44 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $183 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 14:42 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 06:27 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799995632 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 22:18 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 26 to September 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 12:20 | Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.759999696 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 04:05 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 05:32 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 20:31 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $780 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-22 12:30 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 02:31 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999965 | $2.00 |