PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

tja

0xe1b361d6a6f237b9ed7534d19b232df8369e1426

Realised P&L
$117.6k
Volume
$2.62M
Markets traded
1,444
Open portfolio
$89.6k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar4.5%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
CautionMarkets traded1,444
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration17.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration49.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.881$44.1k+$19.1k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.2970.430$12.4k+$3.8k
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5000.118$5.9k$19.1k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7490.795$4.0k+$228.03
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · No0.5951.000$3.0k+$1.2k
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No0.8820.969$2.0k+$179.72
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? · Yes0.1910.445$2.0k+$1.1k
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? · Yes0.1910.991$1.4k+$1.1k
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · No0.8540.885$994.74+$34.34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.4230.480$979.75+$116.06
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.7460.925$968.35+$187.89
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.8300.960$960.00+$130.00
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? · No0.8541.000$896.23+$130.54
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes0.5180.605$786.49+$112.98
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · No0.7700.957$765.20+$149.20

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-29 18:170 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?SELL0.0498034938$12.49
07-27 18:06Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?BUY0.71$11.63
07-27 15:46US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?BUY0.8855166$885.52
07-27 15:42US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?BUY0.91$457.39
07-27 15:42US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?SELL0.08$32.00
07-27 01:08Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?SELL0.14$17.78
07-26 17:420 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?SELL0.100419808$66.41
07-25 19:22Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.45$4.76
07-25 12:02Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 7%?BUY0.64$219.58
07-22 15:05Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?BUY0.2767352434$513.84
07-22 13:23US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?BUY0.43$258.00
07-22 13:22US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?BUY0.36$180.00
07-21 12:260 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?SELL0.2079979893$131.37
07-21 12:26Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?SELL0.89$180.18
07-21 12:26Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?SELL0.8972357668$1.1k