tja
0xe1b361d6a6f237b9ed7534d19b232df8369e1426
- Realised P&L
- $117.6k
- Volume
- $2.62M
- Markets traded
- 1,444
- Open portfolio
- $89.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,444
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration17.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration49.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.6kat 0.995MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$5.2kat 0.104Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?
- +$4.9kat 0.553MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
- +$4.6kat 0.701MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
- +$4.2kat 0.914Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 18:17 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | SELL | 0.0498034938 | $12.49 |
| 07-27 18:06 | Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks? | BUY | 0.71 | $11.63 |
| 07-27 15:46 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.8855166 | $885.52 |
| 07-27 15:42 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15? | BUY | 0.91 | $457.39 |
| 07-27 15:42 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | SELL | 0.08 | $32.00 |
| 07-27 01:08 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.14 | $17.78 |
| 07-26 17:42 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | SELL | 0.100419808 | $66.41 |
| 07-25 19:22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.45 | $4.76 |
| 07-25 12:02 | Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 7%? | BUY | 0.64 | $219.58 |
| 07-22 15:05 | Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | BUY | 0.2767352434 | $513.84 |
| 07-22 13:23 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $258.00 |
| 07-22 13:22 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.36 | $180.00 |
| 07-21 12:26 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | SELL | 0.2079979893 | $131.37 |
| 07-21 12:26 | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | SELL | 0.89 | $180.18 |
| 07-21 12:26 | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | SELL | 0.8972357668 | $1.1k |