PolyBot

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Traders

tja

0xe1b361d6a6f237b9ed7534d19b232df8369e1426

Realised P&L
$159.1k
Volume
$2.79M
Markets traded
1,525
Open portfolio
$111.2k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar5.7%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
CautionMarkets traded1,525
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration13.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration33.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.5000.920$36.8k+$16.8k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No0.3610.825$34.2k+$19.3k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7490.835$4.2k+$428.03
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5000.080$3.2k$16.8k
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No0.8820.983$2.0k+$208.79
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? · No0.6800.880$2.0k+$444.40
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.7350.745$1.9k+$24.71
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? · No0.7410.935$1.7k+$349.00
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19? · No0.9350.997$1.4k+$86.05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · No0.8300.855$1.4k+$39.87
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · No0.6870.725$1.3k+$65.19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · No0.8540.945$1.1k+$101.78
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · No0.9480.972$1.0k+$25.53
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.8400.855$1.0k+$18.00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No0.3670.665$994.09+$445.79

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-15 16:47Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?BUY0.3197794136$276.50
09-15 16:44Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.5$326.59
09-15 16:44Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?SELL0.5042054661$796.60
09-15 16:38Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?SELL0.6181109916$873.66
09-15 16:38Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?SELL0.6325654277$2.1k
09-14 21:31Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?SELL0.8593826981$183.08
09-14 13:41Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?BUY0.98$687.19
09-14 13:41Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?BUY0.9193524252$285.07
09-14 13:41Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?BUY0.8651957194$333.09
09-12 14:42Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?BUY0.809975571$377.65
09-12 11:19Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?SELL0.0863957376$30.65
09-12 08:27Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?BUY0.65$88.43
09-11 19:56Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?BUY0.9295135263$177.30
09-11 13:06Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?BUY0.0958649071$34.32
09-11 12:54Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?BUY0.94$112.80