tja
0xe1b361d6a6f237b9ed7534d19b232df8369e1426
- Realised P&L
- $159.1k
- Volume
- $2.79M
- Markets traded
- 1,525
- Open portfolio
- $111.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.7%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- CautionMarkets traded1,525
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.4kat 0.0400 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
- +$7.5kat 0.995MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$5.2kat 0.104Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?
- +$4.9kat 0.553MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
- +$4.5kat 0.702MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 16:47 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | BUY | 0.3197794136 | $276.50 |
| 09-15 16:44 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $326.59 |
| 09-15 16:44 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.5042054661 | $796.60 |
| 09-15 16:38 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6181109916 | $873.66 |
| 09-15 16:38 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6325654277 | $2.1k |
| 09-14 21:31 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | SELL | 0.8593826981 | $183.08 |
| 09-14 13:41 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19? | BUY | 0.98 | $687.19 |
| 09-14 13:41 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19? | BUY | 0.9193524252 | $285.07 |
| 09-14 13:41 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19? | BUY | 0.8651957194 | $333.09 |
| 09-12 14:42 | Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.809975571 | $377.65 |
| 09-12 11:19 | Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | SELL | 0.0863957376 | $30.65 |
| 09-12 08:27 | Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.65 | $88.43 |
| 09-11 19:56 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.9295135263 | $177.30 |
| 09-11 13:06 | Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.0958649071 | $34.32 |
| 09-11 12:54 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13? | BUY | 0.94 | $112.80 |