PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

justrun86

0xe196f3eb5f678958d5ed8df5bf666d7dab5e5d47

Realised P&L
$-39.20
Volume
$1.6k
Markets traded
24
Open portfolio
$68.95

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded24
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample6 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · Yes0.0900.175$19.44+$9.44
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.6400.560$8.75−$1.25
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0460.032$6.96−$3.04
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3930.129$6.54−$13.46
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? · Yes0.1500.115$5.75−$1.75
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0360.019$5.44−$4.56
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes0.1600.075$4.69−$5.31
Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? · Yes0.0510.033$3.15−$1.85
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.0330.009$2.58−$7.42
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1000.017$1.65−$8.35
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4300.135$1.57−$3.43
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26? · Down0.2760.080$1.45−$3.55
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1800.035$0.99−$4.01
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.3900.000$0.00−$10.00
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina0.4070.000$0.00−$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-01 20:40Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3929104026$20.00
07-26 16:46Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?BUY0.449999955$5.00
07-26 16:43Fed rate hike in 2026?BUY0.359999977$5.00
07-19 09:28Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0358659161$10.00
07-19 09:15Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceBUY0.4074999808$10.00
07-19 09:14Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26?BUY0.2763903043$5.00
07-19 09:12Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?BUY0.15$7.50
07-19 09:11Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1799999755$5.00
07-19 09:11Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.0329999967$10.00
07-07 20:30Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?BUY0.64$10.00
07-07 20:29Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?BUY0.16$10.00
07-07 20:29Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?BUY0.0899999919$10.00
07-07 20:28Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0459630415$10.00
07-07 20:27Will Gavin Newsom be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?BUY0.0515576026$5.00
07-07 20:26Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1$10.00