Palladin
0xdcd962e5da7c9506bba32ea99cfff18a3e9a35d4
- Realised P&L
- $-992.90
- Volume
- $60.2k
- Markets traded
- 221
- Open portfolio
- $72.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded221
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)26.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$139.50at 0.070Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$75.33at 0.090Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?
- +$73.61at 0.285Will Hunter Biden be indicted by July 1, 2023?
- +$62.60at 0.240[Single Market] Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$58.33at 0.300Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-11 22:35 | Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.003 | $2.34 |
| 08-11 22:34 | Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.08 |
| 08-11 22:32 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.3T by August 31? | BUY | 0.0899999582 | $1.85 |
| 08-11 22:27 | Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? | BUY | 0.0140000001 | $2.15 |
| 08-11 22:24 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.0269999873 | $2.04 |
| 08-07 02:23 | Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? | BUY | 0.0176721311 | $1.08 |
| 08-07 02:21 | Will Venezuela become 51st state? | BUY | 0.0306602538 | $3.85 |
| 08-07 02:20 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.82 |
| 05-23 19:11 | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY | 0.005 | $5.00 |
| 05-23 19:08 | Exact Score: FC Bayern München 0 - 1 VfB Stuttgart? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 05-23 19:08 | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? | BUY | 0.1699999871 | $10.00 |
| 04-25 22:07 | Kash Patel out by June 30? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.00 |
| 04-25 22:07 | Kash Patel out by April 30? | BUY | 0.2779999564 | $3.00 |
| 04-14 18:04 | Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 04-10 02:23 | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.0861086246 | $2.22 |