PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

0xdC83474BC4CDf4d037f8BE1EcA21cfa290aaBCD2-1772195983959

0xdc83474bc4cdf4d037f8be1eca21cfa290aabcd2

Realised P&L
$6.7k
Volume
$558.5k
Markets traded
152
Open portfolio
$12.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded152
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration51.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.9420.955$6.6k+$88.55
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? · No0.9430.960$1.9k+$33.34
Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · No0.9290.983$884.05+$48.43
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · No0.5030.735$825.21+$260.75
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · No0.9600.966$809.90+$5.03
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? · No0.7990.625$449.36−$125.28
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? · Yes0.5460.765$339.85+$97.15
Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026? · No0.9840.986$295.65+$0.45
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.5260.427$170.80−$39.80
Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026? · Yes0.5550.170$162.88−$369.22
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes0.5790.675$162.79+$23.25
Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · No0.9200.792$107.58−$17.43
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? · Yes0.4500.205$85.35−$102.01
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.7600.265$26.50−$49.50
Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1400.060$6.37−$8.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-27 21:32Will GameStop acquire eBay?BUY0.94$658.00
10-23 08:24Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026?BUY0.984$295.20
10-14 15:38Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?BUY0.91$591.38
10-13 13:05Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?BUY0.88$159.10
10-12 19:03Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9750785538$1.1k
10-12 15:12Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?BUY0.91$576.59
10-12 15:10Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?BUY0.986$5.03
10-12 15:04Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?SELL0.0094007471$12.56
10-09 23:02Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?BUY0.29$58.00
10-06 08:39Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?BUY0.3$60.00
10-05 14:43Will GameStop acquire eBay?BUY0.95$1.4k
10-05 14:42Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?SELL0.7$74.20
10-05 13:34Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?BUY0.59$74.66
10-05 13:25Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?BUY0.9$450.00
10-05 13:25Will GameStop acquire eBay?BUY0.94$1.1k