0xdC83474BC4CDf4d037f8BE1EcA21cfa290aaBCD2-1772195983959
0xdc83474bc4cdf4d037f8be1eca21cfa290aabcd2
- Realised P&L
- $6.7k
- Volume
- $558.5k
- Markets traded
- 152
- Open portfolio
- $12.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded152
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.7kat 0.893US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$2.1kat 0.745US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.8kat 0.929Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.7kat 0.909US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.972 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 21:32 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | BUY | 0.94 | $658.00 |
| 10-23 08:24 | Clavicular and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez confirm relationship in 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $295.20 |
| 10-14 15:38 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $591.38 |
| 10-13 13:05 | Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $159.10 |
| 10-12 19:03 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9750785538 | $1.1k |
| 10-12 15:12 | Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $576.59 |
| 10-12 15:10 | Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.986 | $5.03 |
| 10-12 15:04 | Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | SELL | 0.0094007471 | $12.56 |
| 10-09 23:02 | Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | BUY | 0.29 | $58.00 |
| 10-06 08:39 | Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime? | BUY | 0.3 | $60.00 |
| 10-05 14:43 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | BUY | 0.95 | $1.4k |
| 10-05 14:42 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $74.20 |
| 10-05 13:34 | Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.59 | $74.66 |
| 10-05 13:25 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $450.00 |
| 10-05 13:25 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | BUY | 0.94 | $1.1k |