PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

bigbirdluca

0xdbfdc9e624fe721df4ec4190f6c3f2d1d60457bc

Realised P&L
$-7.2k
Volume
$183.5k
Markets traded
105
Open portfolio
$1.2k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded105
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration39.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? · Yes0.3050.170$278.41−$221.59
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? · Yes0.5280.270$255.55−$244.45
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4901.000$204.14+$104.14
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.1100.160$145.45+$45.46
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.5400.358$66.39−$33.61
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2900.183$63.28−$36.72
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0770.225$58.31+$38.31
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? · Yes0.6500.065$52.00−$468.00
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.3700.153$41.49−$58.51
Will the Dallas Mavericks win more than 41.5 regular season games in 2025–26? · Yes0.2100.000$0.00−$2.00
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? · Yes0.1610.000$0.00−$699.99
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? · Yes0.0750.000$0.00−$299.99
Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes0.1950.000$0.00−$1.3k
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? · Yes0.3260.000$0.00−$20.00
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? · Yes0.0900.000$0.00−$20.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-06 13:16Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?SELL0.907588$363.04
05-26 22:03Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?SELL0.999$299.70
05-25 18:58Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?BUY0.01877$3.75
05-25 18:56Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?BUY0.65$25.35
05-25 18:50Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY0.22$1.8k
01-29 14:11Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?SELL0.89924572$899.25
01-28 00:09Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?BUY0.36$34.99
01-28 00:07Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?SELL0.75$375.00
01-28 00:07Moonbirds FDV above $400M one day after launch?BUY0.1225681818$2.16
01-25 15:40Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?BUY0.36$108.00
01-25 15:40Penguin listed on Binance by March 31?BUY0.1770599187$100.00
01-25 15:39EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.32$25.37
01-25 15:39EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.7$210.00
01-25 15:39EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.31$9.16
01-25 15:37Infinex FDV above $300M one day after launch?BUY0.2777895356$300.00