Bond2026
0xd782fc675f83751c3d5a443498e3d26a4e2a1d90
- Realised P&L
- $-101.22
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $288.48
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- Not knownSettled sample0 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- CautionOpen concentration86.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? · Yes | 0.400 | 1.000 | $250.00 | +$150.00 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.075 | $16.54 | −$133.46 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.030 | $8.97 | −$41.03 |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.029 | $6.56 | −$13.44 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.041 | $6.41 | −$43.59 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.47 |
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-12 20:04 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4 | $100.00 |
| 04-12 19:57 | Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | BUY | 0.2299999869 | $10.00 |
| 04-12 19:53 | Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.089999996 | $20.00 |
| 04-12 19:49 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? | BUY | 0.2099999838 | $9.24 |
| 04-12 19:47 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999972 | $50.00 |
| 04-12 19:46 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.32 | $50.00 |
| 04-12 19:46 | Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | BUY | 0.6799999995 | $150.00 |