happy00
0xd576bb03811082b995eb15ae49322be14a30b8f4
- Realised P&L
- $-1.0k
- Volume
- $284.6k
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.275 | $492.25 | −$8.95 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.600 | 0.455 | $213.85 | −$68.15 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.410 | $150.02 | −$3.66 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.425 | $137.12 | −$40.33 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? · No | 0.410 | 0.385 | $98.70 | −$6.41 |
| Will Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$60.30 |
| Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.16 |
| Will Zoominfo Technologies (GTM) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.189 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.33 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$45.44at 0.761Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
- +$23.35at 0.734Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$23.10at 0.520Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
- +$20.23at 0.300Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$16.62at 0.363Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 03:47 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.885 | $88.50 |
| 07-28 23:25 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | SELL | 0.35 | $71.10 |
| 07-28 23:25 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | SELL | 0.2124627513 | $134.75 |
| 07-27 23:18 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | SELL | 0.3211443478 | $36.93 |
| 07-27 23:13 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | SELL | 0.61 | $256.71 |
| 07-25 22:30 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.79 | $36.55 |
| 07-25 00:38 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)? | SELL | 0.2698402458 | $305.14 |
| 07-24 01:38 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | SELL | 0.64 | $19.49 |
| 07-24 01:38 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | SELL | 0.35 | $142.32 |
| 07-23 12:10 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.761 | $251.13 |
| 07-22 14:25 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.3604860693 | $185.41 |
| 07-22 14:21 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 07-22 10:07 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.86 | $251.86 |
| 07-19 00:33 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.0530365705 | $21.26 |
| 07-15 14:09 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.951 | $694.24 |