orin40
0xd4932b0fa75ed34bbd4cf90183eb971d91d27f04
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $7.33M
- Markets traded
- 8,219
- Open portfolio
- $602.76
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded8,219
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$166.14at 0.005Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy?
- +$124.63at 0.012Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to at least 20 years in prison?
- +$114.83at 0.050Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of March 2026?
- +$109.68at 0.002Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division?
- +$96.00at 0.100Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 05:21 | Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.39 |
| 06-19 04:41 | Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.02 | $2.13 |
| 06-16 07:18 | Will Chris Madel win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.05 |
| 05-23 06:46 | Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.10 |
| 04-02 21:51 | Will OG Anunoby lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.01 |
| 03-26 15:37 | James Norton announced as next James Bond? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.20 |
| 02-17 17:30 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.025 | $2.50 |
| 02-16 17:38 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.0838073197 | $12.46 |
| 02-14 07:20 | Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.016 | $1.60 |
| 02-13 21:04 | Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.02 | $1.96 |
| 02-13 18:52 | Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.026 | $2.60 |
| 02-13 17:10 | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | BUY | 0.04 | $4.00 |
| 02-13 16:22 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.036 | $3.60 |
| 02-13 14:42 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.05 | $5.00 |
| 02-13 11:37 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.049 | $4.90 |