petryshakm
0xd4536649ebaa5f9a77ad3d54ef5827c5aa191f27
- Realised P&L
- $-216.93
- Volume
- $13.9k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $536.19
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.085 | $212.50 | −$37.50 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.065 | $109.16 | −$37.26 |
| Will Russia invade another country in 2026? · Yes | 0.098 | 0.085 | $75.17 | −$11.37 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.900 | $39.56 | −$0.44 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.930 | $30.66 | +$0.66 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.085 | $27.05 | −$7.95 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.025 | $24.50 | −$25.50 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.011 | $17.60 | −$32.40 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.33at 0.900US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?
- +$-0.02at 0.980Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026?
- +$-0.39at 0.900Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 14:06 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $70.60 |
| 07-23 14:06 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | SELL | 0.91 | $30.33 |
| 07-23 14:06 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.979490076 | $39.97 |
| 07-08 21:38 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $27.63 |
| 07-08 21:37 | Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | BUY | 0.9099999994 | $30.00 |
| 07-08 21:29 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.909999995 | $40.00 |
| 07-08 21:29 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.98 | $40.00 |
| 07-07 20:57 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.0968922442 | $58.91 |
| 07-07 20:56 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0605126151 | $58.91 |
| 07-07 20:48 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0892261371 | $34.59 |
| 07-07 20:47 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $34.59 |
| 07-07 20:45 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8999999897 | $34.99 |
| 07-07 20:45 | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999973 | $35.00 |
| 07-07 20:40 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.899999976 | $30.00 |
| 07-07 20:38 | Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0704002247 | $83.26 |