compute
0xd0d920677cf913e289b6467dde2140d4fa43d6db
- Realised P&L
- $10.1k
- Volume
- $1.48M
- Markets traded
- 279
- Open portfolio
- $5.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded279
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.9kat 0.373Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
- +$2.2kat 0.550Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$1.7kat 0.345US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?
- +$1.1kat 0.214Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$769.53at 0.605Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 19:00 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | SELL | 0.16 | $81.39 |
| 09-15 18:23 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.002 | $61.48 |
| 09-15 18:08 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | BUY | 0.002 | $10.25 |
| 09-15 12:28 | Iran Nuke before 2027? | SELL | 0.06 | $16.32 |
| 09-14 01:19 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | SELL | 0.11 | $9.43 |
| 09-14 01:18 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $56.45 |
| 09-14 01:13 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $290.40 |
| 09-12 22:27 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | SELL | 0.13 | $4.07 |
| 09-12 22:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7? | SELL | 0.12 | $0.14 |
| 09-12 22:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.05 |
| 09-12 22:25 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.12 | $14.23 |
| 09-12 22:23 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.13 | $14.67 |
| 09-12 13:55 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.22 | $45.01 |
| 09-12 01:52 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | SELL | 0.19 | $179.00 |
| 09-11 22:01 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | SELL | 0.16 | $38.08 |