q82850325
0xce38665a662f6500c29fbd4201877182eac11325
- Realised P&L
- $336.90
- Volume
- $6.9k
- Markets traded
- 34
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded34
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$100.18at 0.339Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 7?
- +$87.37at 0.770Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$47.70at 0.809Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$41.15at 0.829Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?
- +$34.70at 0.801US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 07:14 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $200.00 |
| 09-16 07:12 | Will Avengers: Doomsday rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026? | BUY | 0.3760416651 | $38.00 |
| 09-13 08:56 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.78 | $46.99 |
| 09-13 08:53 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.9467318673 | $241.09 |
| 09-05 13:00 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8799999994 | $115.00 |
| 09-05 12:59 | Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.6814787691 | $100.00 |
| 09-05 12:59 | Will Raphaël Glucksmann be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.5731225292 | $100.00 |
| 09-02 22:31 | Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.8699999994 | $63.00 |
| 09-02 22:30 | Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.3599999977 | $50.00 |
| 09-02 22:23 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.8299999977 | $50.00 |
| 09-02 22:21 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.8899999946 | $100.00 |
| 08-02 16:04 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8799999934 | $117.83 |
| 08-02 16:03 | Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8735523097 | $100.00 |
| 07-30 21:01 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.4199999983 | $48.47 |
| 07-30 07:33 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.8075772668 | $100.00 |