2026ismyyear
0xc6e76de1246097f763f013995fb7792de9211f0d
- Realised P&L
- $170.73
- Volume
- $15.7k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $172.30
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)43.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.140 | $92.13 | −$17.87 |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? · Yes | 0.182 | 0.145 | $39.72 | −$10.28 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.417 | 0.512 | $18.44 | +$3.44 |
| Will Markus Söder be the next Chancellor of Germany? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.155 | $11.92 | +$1.92 |
| Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.045 | $4.03 | −$5.97 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.167 | 0.070 | $3.38 | −$4.62 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.011 | $2.68 | −$5.32 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? · No | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? · No | 0.490 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$198.03at 0.053Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
- +$54.82at 0.086Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
- +$24.23at 0.110Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$18.26at 0.460Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$3.54at 0.359Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 16:04 | Will Markus Söder be the next Chancellor of Germany? | BUY | 0.1299999999 | $10.00 |
| 09-08 13:09 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.245 | $11.61 |
| 08-01 14:05 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.296 | $40.36 |
| 05-16 21:19 | Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.4987289048 | $13.89 |
| 05-16 21:18 | Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.033 | $2.35 |
| 05-16 21:17 | Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.016 | $0.69 |
| 05-16 21:17 | Will France win Eurovision 2026? | SELL | 0.007 | $0.26 |
| 04-24 11:43 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.11 |
| 04-12 16:25 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.88 | $38.25 |
| 04-12 16:24 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.008 | $2.46 |
| 04-12 16:24 | Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.011 | $5.50 |
| 04-12 16:23 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.091 | $13.38 |
| 04-12 05:28 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.2299999692 | $5.00 |
| 03-27 08:22 | US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $40.00 |
| 03-27 08:22 | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY | 0.4 | $30.00 |