0xb9d65f2362ba9dbd9a923cda499797d4e44de672
0xb9d65f2362ba9dbd9a923cda499797d4e44de672
- Realised P&L
- $-253.77
- Volume
- $2.9k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $286.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration69.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? · Yes | 0.465 | 0.720 | $121.67 | +$43.11 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.845 | $84.50 | +$6.50 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.870 | $39.15 | +$3.60 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.437 | 0.335 | $20.09 | −$6.12 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.402 | $10.05 | −$0.45 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.365 | $9.02 | +$0.12 |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? · Yes | 0.431 | 0.014 | $1.92 | −$57.18 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.74 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.19at 0.688Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
- +$13.25at 0.281Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$0.52at 0.262Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
- +$-1.48at 0.774Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?
- +$-2.17at 0.586Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 21:56 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.36 | $8.89 |
| 10-29 17:56 | Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.71 | $14.86 |
| 10-29 08:21 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.012 | $0.54 |
| 10-28 17:18 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 58% or higher? | BUY | 0.79 | $35.55 |
| 10-27 21:05 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.14 | $7.36 |
| 10-27 20:51 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | BUY | 0.19 | $9.99 |
| 10-27 20:40 | Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.15 | $11.87 |
| 10-27 16:59 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 29, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $6.66 |
| 10-25 16:21 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | SELL | 0.438 | $148.64 |
| 10-25 10:30 | Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? | BUY | 0.34 | $50.00 |
| 10-24 12:08 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.22 | $4.18 |
| 10-24 07:39 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $9.30 |
| 10-23 12:19 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.241 | $12.05 |
| 10-23 12:18 | Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | SELL | 0.47 | $8.46 |
| 10-23 07:38 | Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.44 | $9.50 |