0xb886813fBC2Ef1a542E3879Bfe3002255d5072FC-1772349366848
0xb886813fbc2ef1a542e3879bfe3002255d5072fc
- Realised P&L
- $10.72
- Volume
- $1.5k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $121.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? · No | 0.860 | 1.000 | $20.00 | +$2.80 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.953 | 1.000 | $20.00 | +$0.94 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 1.000 | $20.00 | +$17.60 |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.981 | $19.62 | +$2.42 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? · No | 0.916 | 0.937 | $18.74 | +$0.42 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? · No | 0.909 | 0.873 | $17.45 | −$0.73 |
| Canada's population Up or Down this year? · Up | 0.470 | 0.465 | $4.39 | −$0.05 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.063 | $1.26 | −$0.10 |
| Will Trump try to Fire Powell by March 31? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.65 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.20 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.80at 0.160Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?
- +$9.78at 0.011Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$8.70at 0.065Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?
- +$4.80at 0.260Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?
- +$4.00at 0.920EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-17 06:18 | Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the March Meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 03-15 10:29 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.07 | $3.50 |
| 03-11 08:58 | Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.221 | $7.74 |