0xb6ce892dd3e01d4e30264f15fd9e61a4f62f895d
- Realised P&L
- $5.1k
- Volume
- $436.4k
- Markets traded
- 638
- Open portfolio
- $20.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded638
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.4kat 0.438MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$792.43at 0.943US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$654.31at 0.779US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$605.38at 0.642Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$578.33at 0.324Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 08:47 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $4.74 |
| 08-04 08:34 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $7.11 |
| 08-04 07:08 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $5.53 |
| 08-04 07:05 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.976 | $770.06 |
| 08-04 05:49 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $4.74 |
| 08-04 05:45 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.16 | $3.36 |
| 08-04 05:42 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.24 |
| 08-04 04:56 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $5.53 |
| 08-04 03:29 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.16 | $3.52 |
| 08-04 02:40 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.92 |
| 08-04 02:35 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $7.95 |
| 08-04 02:07 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | SELL | 0.761 | $6.09 |
| 08-04 01:58 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.28 |
| 08-04 01:51 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.14 | $28.00 |
| 08-04 01:45 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $79.00 |