0xb6ce892dd3e01d4e30264f15fd9e61a4f62f895d
- Realised P&L
- $4.2k
- Volume
- $598.8k
- Markets traded
- 969
- Open portfolio
- $27.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded969
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.448MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$792.43at 0.943US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$654.31at 0.779US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$593.73at 0.648Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$578.33at 0.324Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 10:52 | Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $6.16 |
| 09-18 08:44 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $1.65 |
| 09-18 06:24 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.98 | $18.62 |
| 09-18 02:16 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $2.79 |
| 09-18 01:16 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $86.49 |
| 09-18 01:13 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.364 | $70.62 |
| 09-17 21:14 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.89 | $87.22 |
| 09-17 15:07 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $402.32 |
| 09-17 12:11 | Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.96 | $16.32 |
| 09-17 07:16 | Will Democrats sweep the Minnesota Senate and Governor elections? | BUY | 0.9 | $10.80 |
| 09-16 22:43 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.7326248024 | $222.48 |
| 09-16 20:22 | Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $87.40 |
| 09-16 19:04 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $26.97 |
| 09-16 17:13 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.86 | $532.34 |
| 09-16 17:09 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $5.28 |