ka7ak
0xad5c1ab0f47b36c1b0cc883cc6b987fb4aa33268
- Realised P&L
- $280.47
- Volume
- $9.0k
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)61.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$133.52at 0.642Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- +$97.41at 0.675Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
- +$15.71at 0.381Will SPD win between 10% and 13% of all valid second votes?
- +$15.68at 0.379Will Grüne win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?
- +$15.64at 0.885M25 Nevers: Thomas Faurel vs Yannis Batsabaken
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 20:36 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $24.70 |
| 09-21 19:22 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $33.00 |
| 09-21 19:11 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $16.00 |
| 09-21 19:11 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $6.00 |
| 09-21 19:08 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $200.00 |
| 09-21 19:06 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 19:03 | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.18 | $36.00 |
| 09-21 17:05 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $55.00 |
| 09-21 16:54 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $24.20 |
| 09-21 11:49 | Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $16.80 |
| 09-20 21:05 | Berlin State Election: More Votes to CDU or Linke? | SELL | 0.991 | $13.21 |
| 09-20 21:01 | Berlin State Election: Linke Over/Under 20%? | SELL | 0.002 | $0.08 |
| 09-20 20:58 | Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | SELL | 0.991 | $15.73 |
| 09-20 20:58 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.979 | $25.13 |
| 09-20 20:56 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.9714342424 | $320.57 |