0x463F42313F8eD8B070977502D6b25A86A88422dC-1776252682498
0xa85ac5c6062ce383ba5d8a14c83e656e296eb05b
- Realised P&L
- $-6.22
- Volume
- $3.5k
- Markets traded
- 575
- Open portfolio
- $83.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded575
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.14at 0.140US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
- +$4.00at 0.200Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
- +$1.90at 0.155Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
- +$1.76at 0.220Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.35at 0.747US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 03:33 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.0409545121 | $1.00 |
| 09-05 19:37 | Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9760239705 | $10.00 |
| 09-05 19:35 | Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? | SELL | 0.9779784736 | $9.99 |
| 09-05 19:34 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | SELL | 0.983 | $10.11 |
| 09-05 19:34 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $0.92 |
| 08-28 19:45 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 08-22 11:01 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.599999976 | $5.00 |
| 08-22 11:01 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $0.94 |
| 08-22 07:46 | Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? | BUY | 0.8 | $10.00 |
| 08-22 07:45 | Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 07:45 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999836 | $10.00 |
| 08-22 07:44 | Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 08-22 07:35 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 22? | SELL | 0.593 | $1.84 |
| 08-22 07:34 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 22? | SELL | 0.72 | $5.04 |
| 08-22 04:58 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 22? | SELL | 0.7904955401 | $7.98 |