PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x463F42313F8eD8B070977502D6b25A86A88422dC-1776252682498

0xa85ac5c6062ce383ba5d8a14c83e656e296eb05b

Realised P&L
$-6.22
Volume
$3.5k
Markets traded
575
Open portfolio
$83.09

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded575
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration46.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4400.690$15.68+$5.68
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? · No0.9820.996$10.14+$0.14
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30? · No0.9830.985$10.02+$0.02
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026? · No0.9600.940$9.79−$0.21
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6000.520$4.33−$0.67
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3100.125$4.03−$5.97
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? · Yes0.8000.270$3.38−$6.63
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1000.013$1.25−$8.75
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8800.935$1.06+$0.06
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No0.9520.999$1.05+$0.05
Ebola pandemic in 2026? · No0.9300.969$1.04+$0.04
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9100.935$1.03+$0.03
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? · No0.9750.997$1.02+$0.02
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.9781.000$1.02+$0.02
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.9821.000$1.02+$0.02

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-11 03:33Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?BUY0.0409545121$1.00
09-05 19:37Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?BUY0.9760239705$10.00
09-05 19:35Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30?SELL0.9779784736$9.99
09-05 19:34Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?SELL0.983$10.11
09-05 19:34Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?SELL0.79$0.92
08-28 19:45Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by September 30, 2026?BUY0.1$10.00
08-22 11:01Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.599999976$5.00
08-22 11:01Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?SELL0.15$0.94
08-22 07:46Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?BUY0.8$10.00
08-22 07:45Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?BUY0.1499998875$1.00
08-22 07:45Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?BUY0.3099999836$10.00
08-22 07:44Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?BUY0.16$1.00
08-22 07:35Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 22?SELL0.593$1.84
08-22 07:34Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on August 22?SELL0.72$5.04
08-22 04:58Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 22?SELL0.7904955401$7.98