risk-manager
0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd
- Realised P&L
- $269.4k
- Volume
- $713.26M
- Markets traded
- 857
- Open portfolio
- $237.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded857
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$677.7kat 0.002Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
- +$174.8kat 0.003Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$56.2kat 0.013Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$51.0kat 0.070Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$41.6kat 0.018Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 04:18 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.76 | $3.8k |
| 07-27 15:16 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.718 | $25.13 |
| 07-19 19:06 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.582 | $446.97 |
| 07-19 19:02 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | SELL | 0.2475 | $4.0k |
| 07-19 19:00 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | SELL | 0.2525 | $2.7k |
| 07-18 21:18 | Will France vs. England end in a draw? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.6k |
| 07-17 16:12 | Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.001 | $44.10 |
| 07-17 03:10 | Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.004 | $4.70 |
| 07-14 16:13 | Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.006 | $276.43 |
| 07-14 16:13 | Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.005 | $89.84 |
| 07-12 03:59 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.46 | $136.41 |
| 07-11 20:31 | Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? | SELL | 0.2175 | $3.3k |
| 07-11 19:37 | Will England win on 2026-07-11? | SELL | 0.4675 | $5.06 |
| 07-11 19:27 | Will England win on 2026-07-11? | SELL | 0.47 | $7.0k |
| 07-11 04:30 | Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.002 | $100.49 |