risk-manager
0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd
- Realised P&L
- $198.9k
- Volume
- $699.13M
- Markets traded
- 876
- Open portfolio
- $131.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded876
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$195.7kat 0.302Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
- +$102.8kat 0.003Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$97.5kat 0.331Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
- +$77.8kat 0.027No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
- +$59.1kat 0.005No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 03:26 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.2k |
| 10-29 17:48 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | SELL | 0.9219126971 | $13.1k |
| 10-29 17:47 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.88501344 | $4.4k |
| 10-29 17:47 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.8892641699 | $13.0k |
| 10-29 17:43 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.942 | $201.88 |
| 10-29 17:43 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.94591683 | $4.1k |
| 10-27 17:06 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.76 | $1.5k |
| 10-25 08:28 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.896 | $2.6k |
| 10-20 08:11 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.91 | $1.4k |
| 08-28 14:49 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.009 | $61.24 |
| 08-26 15:09 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? | BUY | 0.985 | $8.8k |
| 08-22 11:08 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.34 | $275.48 |
| 08-22 11:05 | Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.004 | $147.18 |
| 08-22 11:05 | Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.006 | $17.16 |
| 08-22 11:05 | Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? | SELL | 0.008 | $80.34 |