PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

risk-manager

0xa61ef8773ec2e821962306ca87d4b57e39ff0abd

Realised P&L
$198.9k
Volume
$699.13M
Markets traded
876
Open portfolio
$131.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded876
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration29.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · No0.7950.795$20.7k+$0.34
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No0.9450.971$18.5k+$495.03
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.3090.154$16.2k−$16.2k
Modi out by December 31, 2026? · No0.9570.970$10.8k+$141.00
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.8300.945$9.5k+$1.2k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8270.825$8.3k−$24.99
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.0500.055$8.2k+$750.00
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? · No0.8440.966$4.9k+$617.18
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? · Yes0.8890.820$4.5k−$374.49
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.7500.955$4.3k+$922.53
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · No0.8600.825$4.1k−$175.00
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8590.955$3.9k+$388.52
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0080.002$3.3k−$14.2k
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No0.8120.875$3.1k+$221.97
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? · No0.7000.735$2.9k+$140.01

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
11-01 03:26Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?SELL0.05$1.2k
10-29 17:48Will GameStop acquire eBay?SELL0.9219126971$13.1k
10-29 17:47Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.88501344$4.4k
10-29 17:47Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.8892641699$13.0k
10-29 17:43Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?SELL0.942$201.88
10-29 17:43Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?SELL0.94591683$4.1k
10-27 17:06Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?SELL0.76$1.5k
10-25 08:28Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?SELL0.896$2.6k
10-20 08:11Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.91$1.4k
08-28 14:49Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.009$61.24
08-26 15:09Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?BUY0.985$8.8k
08-22 11:08Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?SELL0.34$275.48
08-22 11:05Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?SELL0.004$147.18
08-22 11:05Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship?SELL0.006$17.16
08-22 11:05Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?SELL0.008$80.34