PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

benrafa

0x9ef9ba52ccaa09a5d5a0b341b7ffea65af6e5840

Realised P&L
$-36.71
Volume
$33.8k
Markets traded
35
Open portfolio
$468.46

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded35
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample6 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? · $80k0.3701.000$135.15+$85.15
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? · Yes0.2041.000$122.66+$97.66
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2190.210$48.05$1.95
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0250.019$39.00$11.00
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes0.2000.065$32.50$67.50
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.1800.046$25.83$74.17
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? · Yes0.0860.079$22.88$2.12
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote? · Yes0.5451.000$18.35+$8.35
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1660.075$11.37$13.63
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? · Yes0.1550.015$9.67$90.33
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.1700.004$2.35$97.65
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.2700.004$0.65$49.35
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? · Yes0.1960.000$0.00$100.00
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? · Yes0.0510.000$0.00$100.00
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? · Yes0.0560.000$0.00$200.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-11 05:30Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?BUY0.109999999$100.00
03-09 07:56Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?BUY0.3699548625$50.00
03-09 07:51US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?BUY0.1955343857$100.00
03-09 06:27Will the Cash initiative or counter-proposal be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?SELL0.0032476702$0.91
03-07 13:27Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?SELL0.360071945$500.48
03-04 16:08Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?BUY0.2$100.00
03-03 13:02US forces enter Iran by March 31?BUY0.25$50.00
03-03 13:02US forces enter Iran by March 14?BUY0.1399999976$50.00
03-03 13:01Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.2190626278$50.00
03-03 13:01Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.1659999952$25.00
03-03 13:01Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?BUY0.025$50.00
03-03 07:50Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.2699999963$50.00
03-03 07:50Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?BUY0.1699999986$100.00
03-03 07:08Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?BUY0.1551142447$100.00
03-03 07:04Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?BUY0.369999998$100.00