benrafa
0x9ef9ba52ccaa09a5d5a0b341b7ffea65af6e5840
- Realised P&L
- $-36.71
- Volume
- $33.8k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $468.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$486.47at 0.170Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$426.32at 0.190US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$350.48at 0.108Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
- +$256.79at 0.280US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?
- +$9.97at 0.627Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-11 05:30 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | BUY | 0.109999999 | $100.00 |
| 03-09 07:56 | Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? | BUY | 0.3699548625 | $50.00 |
| 03-09 07:51 | US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1955343857 | $100.00 |
| 03-09 06:27 | Will the Cash initiative or counter-proposal be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote? | SELL | 0.0032476702 | $0.91 |
| 03-07 13:27 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | SELL | 0.360071945 | $500.48 |
| 03-04 16:08 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |
| 03-03 13:02 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $50.00 |
| 03-03 13:02 | US forces enter Iran by March 14? | BUY | 0.1399999976 | $50.00 |
| 03-03 13:01 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2190626278 | $50.00 |
| 03-03 13:01 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1659999952 | $25.00 |
| 03-03 13:01 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.025 | $50.00 |
| 03-03 07:50 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999963 | $50.00 |
| 03-03 07:50 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999986 | $100.00 |
| 03-03 07:08 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? | BUY | 0.1551142447 | $100.00 |
| 03-03 07:04 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.369999998 | $100.00 |