Kinder-B
0x9cadc15001fb640f367f4934d6f86305c8f1d35c
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $81.7k
- Markets traded
- 88
- Open portfolio
- $771.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded88
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.817 | 0.970 | $290.85 | +$45.79 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.724 | 0.815 | $212.59 | +$23.69 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.325 | 0.475 | $127.30 | +$40.08 |
| Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.598 | 0.973 | $97.25 | +$37.48 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.073 | $19.07 | +$2.67 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.017 | $13.60 | −$7.48 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.095 | $10.56 | +$0.56 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? · Yes | 0.151 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$670.16at 0.661Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
- +$578.56at 0.087Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
- +$301.42at 0.147Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor
- +$251.99at 0.772Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$220.65at 0.796Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 17:27 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.018 | $1.08 |
| 09-12 17:27 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.372197 | $37.22 |
| 09-11 22:59 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.064 | $6.40 |
| 09-11 22:58 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7408333333 | $88.90 |
| 09-11 22:54 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.709999998 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 22:50 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2976190476 | $50.00 |
| 09-11 22:47 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999993 | $10.00 |
| 09-11 22:46 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.0627179201 | $10.00 |
| 09-11 22:46 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.02702895 | $20.00 |
| 09-08 13:12 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.082783592 | $103.15 |
| 09-08 11:25 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1333333333 | $10.00 |
| 09-08 07:46 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2269919032 | $50.00 |
| 09-08 07:45 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2103688038 | $200.00 |
| 02-27 14:38 | US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $68.00 |
| 02-27 11:19 | US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.814185 | $162.84 |