PaddyAlpha
0x9ad091ca2e8f1bd69f27662edcb49dceeaa5bf3d
- Realised P&L
- $52.4k
- Volume
- $21.69M
- Markets traded
- 2,304
- Open portfolio
- $81.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,304
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration29.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.9kat 0.998US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$4.4kat 0.990US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$3.9kat 0.729Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1 AM ET
- +$3.3kat 0.909US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$3.0kat 0.608Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 07:54 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.026 | $5.20 |
| 08-01 17:20 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $22.55 |
| 08-01 17:07 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $6.10 |
| 08-01 16:59 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.67 | $10.00 |
| 08-01 14:57 | Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? | BUY | 0.734 | $3.67 |
| 08-01 14:52 | Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? | BUY | 0.04925 | $9.85 |
| 08-01 14:52 | Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? | BUY | 0.03865625 | $12.37 |
| 08-01 13:58 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.665 | $33.25 |
| 08-01 12:33 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.762 | $41.91 |
| 08-01 12:30 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.761 | $7.61 |
| 08-01 12:19 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $13.20 |
| 08-01 12:09 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.29 | $1.13 |
| 08-01 12:08 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.284641875 | $45.54 |
| 08-01 12:08 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2660415385 | $34.59 |
| 08-01 11:54 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |