polio123
0x990655efc3e4ff8d488af70c268e32f5df61c0ae
- Realised P&L
- $6.8k
- Volume
- $1.47M
- Markets traded
- 749
- Open portfolio
- $76.09
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded749
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.655Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
- +$1.4kat 0.401Israeli parliament dissolved by July 16?
- +$1.0kat 0.146Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?
- +$845.15at 0.991Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
- +$735.93at 0.353Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 18:03 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | SELL | 0.15 | $14.40 |
| 10-16 18:03 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | SELL | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 10-16 07:14 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | SELL | 0.31 | $15.50 |
| 10-16 07:07 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | SELL | 0.353047619 | $74.14 |
| 10-16 06:53 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | SELL | 0.426 | $96.93 |
| 10-15 21:13 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.138 | $13.80 |
| 10-15 03:58 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | SELL | 0.016 | $0.91 |
| 10-13 04:03 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision? | BUY | 0.063 | $5.94 |
| 10-10 16:53 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | SELL | 0.021 | $6.00 |
| 10-08 17:15 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | BUY | 0.016 | $6.77 |
| 10-08 17:14 | Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 10-08 17:14 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | BUY | 0.016 | $13.73 |
| 10-08 17:13 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.01 | $15.00 |
| 10-08 17:12 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | BUY | 0.016 | $5.30 |
| 10-06 03:56 | Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $5.00 |