Andrei40
0x9248c97bf1d03db187f48269fe016f4440d67ea3
- Realised P&L
- $386.80
- Volume
- $11.4k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $579.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)35.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration92.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.114 | $534.95 | +$395.41 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.945 | $11.52 | +$1.52 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No | 0.669 | 0.738 | $11.02 | +$1.02 |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.735 | $10.81 | +$0.81 |
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.260 | $7.43 | −$2.57 |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.020 | $3.83 | −$6.17 |
| Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$15.82at 0.549Will Artemis II launch by March 31?
- +$11.75at 0.630US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
- +$11.55at 0.450Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.45 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?
- +$9.23at 0.520Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?
- +$5.15at 0.660Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 00:53 | Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | BUY | 0.3499999842 | $10.00 |
| 06-28 00:17 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.6689999827 | $10.00 |
| 06-24 13:39 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | BUY | 0.0522768494 | $10.00 |
| 04-01 11:27 | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY | 0.3599999938 | $30.00 |
| 03-20 08:30 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? | BUY | 0.28 | $7.00 |
| 03-19 09:17 | Will Bitcoin hit $70,000 or $73,000 first? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 03-19 09:10 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8199999902 | $10.00 |
| 03-16 17:42 | No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0289999724 | $1.00 |
| 03-16 17:34 | Bitcoin Up or Down on March 16? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 03-16 17:27 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 03-16 17:25 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.005 | $1.00 |
| 03-16 17:25 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 03-16 17:24 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 03-16 17:17 | US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | BUY | 0.6299999716 | $20.00 |
| 03-15 18:49 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.6599999842 | $10.00 |