0x9204916867ee23ebf8b53ed35b6587accb215c05
- Realised P&L
- $2.2k
- Volume
- $196.0k
- Markets traded
- 98
- Open portfolio
- $12.9k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded98
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$413.70at 0.235Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?
- +$398.81at 0.890Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31?
- +$365.84at 0.663US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$221.38at 0.874Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$201.79at 0.763Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 12:17 | Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes? | BUY | 0.8014929666 | $250.00 |
| 09-16 09:40 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.9 | $400.00 |
| 09-16 09:39 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $77.00 |
| 09-16 09:23 | Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.989 | $316.76 |
| 09-16 09:22 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $184.00 |
| 09-10 14:33 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.74 | $77.22 |
| 09-10 14:32 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.74 | $148.00 |
| 09-07 11:16 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | SELL | 0.610999 | $61.10 |
| 09-07 10:01 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.8799999996 | $100.00 |
| 09-07 10:01 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.8799999996 | $100.00 |
| 09-07 09:00 | Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.6599999989 | $200.00 |
| 09-07 07:57 | Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.9299999997 | $100.00 |
| 09-07 07:56 | Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.9197398828 | $110.00 |
| 09-07 07:56 | Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.9034044591 | $100.00 |
| 09-07 07:27 | Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? | BUY | 0.8849688044 | $100.00 |