PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x9204916867ee23ebf8b53ed35b6587accb215c05

Realised P&L
$2.2k
Volume
$196.0k
Markets traded
98
Open portfolio
$12.9k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded98
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration20.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · No0.8840.925$2.6k+$116.86
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? · No0.8800.945$2.1k+$148.54
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.8940.935$1.9k+$83.55
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? · No0.8940.970$1.3k+$99.30
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · No0.9400.969$838.97+$25.11
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8500.835$589.41$10.59
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? · No0.8370.870$587.56+$22.56
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House · No0.9000.895$397.78$2.22
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes0.8260.967$351.15+$51.15
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.4080.610$344.14+$114.14
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.7560.923$305.22+$55.23
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No0.7000.745$246.91+$14.91
Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.9150.890$243.10$6.90
Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes? · No0.8010.756$235.97$14.03
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? · Yes0.6300.610$193.50$6.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 12:17Will Linke win less than 8% of all valid second votes?BUY0.8014929666$250.00
09-16 09:402026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseBUY0.9$400.00
09-16 09:39Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?SELL0.21$77.00
09-16 09:23Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?SELL0.989$316.76
09-16 09:22Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?SELL0.23$184.00
09-10 14:33Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?SELL0.74$77.22
09-10 14:32Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?SELL0.74$148.00
09-07 11:16Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?SELL0.610999$61.10
09-07 10:01Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?BUY0.8799999996$100.00
09-07 10:01Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?BUY0.8799999996$100.00
09-07 09:00Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.6599999989$200.00
09-07 07:57Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.9299999997$100.00
09-07 07:56Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.9197398828$110.00
09-07 07:56Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.9034044591$100.00
09-07 07:27Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?BUY0.8849688044$100.00