0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952
0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b
- Realised P&L
- $-28.8k
- Volume
- $41.37M
- Markets traded
- 856
- Open portfolio
- $3.61M
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded856
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$47.4kat 0.060Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$37.1kat 0.863Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$36.3kat 0.031Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$35.6kat 0.254Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?
- +$31.5kat 0.297Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 17:18 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.962 | $614.89 |
| 09-17 17:17 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.957 | $6.3k |
| 09-17 17:15 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.89 | $3.4k |
| 09-16 18:36 | Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $687.30 |
| 09-16 18:32 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $10.6k |
| 09-10 09:44 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September? | BUY | 0.985 | $21.4k |
| 09-10 09:43 | Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September? | BUY | 0.9609122031 | $8.1k |
| 09-10 09:43 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? | BUY | 0.9707324038 | $4.7k |
| 09-10 09:24 | Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.981 | $366.23 |
| 09-10 06:12 | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $2.3k |
| 09-10 06:11 | Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $514.98 |
| 09-10 06:11 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $301.36 |
| 09-10 06:09 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.982 | $1.2k |
| 09-10 06:08 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $1.2k |
| 09-10 06:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.986 | $4.3k |