PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

0x8b4bca1d794779e66e023d44391b2a86c5ab541b

Realised P&L
$-28.8k
Volume
$41.37M
Markets traded
856
Open portfolio
$3.61M

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded856
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration14.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9110.935$553.1k+$14.3k
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.8750.955$286.5k+$23.9k
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.9160.972$212.0k+$12.0k
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.9530.959$204.4k+$1.2k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? · No0.9881.000$200.8k+$2.3k
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No0.8160.962$182.7k+$27.7k
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9090.955$145.7k+$7.0k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7930.835$135.7k+$6.8k
Trump out as President before 2027? · No0.8540.945$132.3k+$12.8k
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? · No0.8280.941$125.4k+$15.0k
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No0.9360.958$121.9k+$2.8k
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No0.9650.995$113.0k+$3.4k
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · No0.9890.997$99.1k+$736.80
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.8230.905$96.6k+$8.7k
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? · No0.9450.999$93.6k+$5.1k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 17:18Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.962$614.89
09-17 17:17Xi Jinping out before 2027?BUY0.957$6.3k
09-17 17:15Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY0.89$3.4k
09-16 18:36Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.95$687.30
09-16 18:32Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.92$10.6k
09-10 09:44Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September?BUY0.985$21.4k
09-10 09:43Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September?BUY0.9609122031$8.1k
09-10 09:43Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?BUY0.9707324038$4.7k
09-10 09:24Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.981$366.23
09-10 06:12Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.96$2.3k
09-10 06:11Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.93$514.98
09-10 06:11Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.91$301.36
09-10 06:09US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?BUY0.982$1.2k
09-10 06:08US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?BUY0.86$1.2k
09-10 06:06Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?BUY0.986$4.3k