0x8931aa50226eea3e626c961ccffcf176dcf3a90c
- Realised P&L
- $35.1k
- Volume
- $9.36M
- Markets traded
- 748
- Open portfolio
- $1.19M
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded748
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.7kat 0.967Over $30M committed to the Credible public sale?
- +$2.9kat 0.963Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?
- +$2.6kat 0.997Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
- +$2.3kat 0.998Will England win on 2026-07-11?
- +$1.8kat 0.870Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-12 06:42 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.998 | $39.3k |
| 08-12 06:41 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.997 | $7.3k |
| 08-05 14:02 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.5k |
| 08-05 14:02 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.1k |
| 08-05 06:26 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.3k |
| 08-05 06:17 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.997 | $4.4k |
| 08-05 06:13 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.997 | $385.53 |
| 08-05 06:13 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.997 | $14.2k |
| 08-05 06:12 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.9962591365 | $35.9k |
| 08-05 06:12 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.997 | $35.3k |
| 08-05 01:16 | Will Jose Mourinho attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.993 | $99.30 |
| 08-05 01:16 | Will Jose Mourinho attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.9896 | $247.40 |
| 08-04 16:27 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $97.00 |
| 08-04 15:59 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | BUY | 0.945 | $94.50 |
| 08-04 15:44 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | BUY | 0.906 | $453.00 |