PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x8931aa50226eea3e626c961ccffcf176dcf3a90c

0x8931aa50226eea3e626c961ccffcf176dcf3a90c

Realised P&L
$28.7k
Volume
$9.36M
Markets traded
748
Open portfolio
$411.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded748
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration40.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration13.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9650.980$48.7k+$740.97
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · No0.9800.987$29.2k+$182.74
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? · No0.9800.989$28.3k+$246.26
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? · No0.8970.981$24.5k+$2.1k
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No0.9380.973$20.0k+$711.93
Will Venezuela become 51st state? · No0.9700.979$19.2k+$167.91
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No0.9570.977$16.6k+$332.01
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? · No0.9620.981$15.3k+$292.12
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · No0.9760.992$13.9k+$214.72
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.9420.964$13.8k+$305.82
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.9831.000$12.8k+$215.79
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.9651.000$8.8k+$310.73
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? · No0.9810.996$8.0k+$116.48
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · No0.9680.978$7.8k+$79.29
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? · No0.9740.988$6.2k+$82.38

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-12 06:42Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.998$39.3k
08-12 06:41Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.997$7.3k
08-05 14:02Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?BUY0.999$20.5k
08-05 14:02Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?BUY0.999$23.1k
08-05 06:26Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?BUY0.998$2.3k
08-05 06:17Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?BUY0.997$4.4k
08-05 06:13Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?BUY0.997$385.53
08-05 06:13Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?BUY0.997$14.2k
08-05 06:12Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?BUY0.9962591365$35.9k
08-05 06:12Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?BUY0.997$35.3k
08-05 01:16Will Jose Mourinho attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?BUY0.993$99.30
08-05 01:16Will Jose Mourinho attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?BUY0.9896$247.40
08-04 16:270 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?BUY0.97$97.00
08-04 15:590 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?BUY0.945$94.50
08-04 15:440 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?BUY0.906$453.00