86848B5D3A77CA68923AA7E789A
0x87a1fc57462b2ded8331c8d0b0cb1057df77bdd4
- Realised P&L
- $-11.07
- Volume
- $47.6k
- Markets traded
- 300
- Open portfolio
- $874.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded300
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$201.17at 0.598Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$161.42at 0.246Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?
- +$104.25at 0.652Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
- +$86.45at 0.247Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year?
- +$85.05at 0.550Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 19:00 | ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? | BUY | 0.982 | $117.84 |
| 09-29 19:00 | ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? | BUY | 0.981 | $5.71 |
| 09-29 18:59 | ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? | BUY | 0.979 | $18.35 |
| 09-29 18:59 | ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? | BUY | 0.978 | $46.18 |
| 09-29 18:59 | ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? | BUY | 0.969 | $4.84 |
| 09-29 08:04 | OpenAI resumes training by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $11.40 |
| 09-29 08:03 | OpenAI resumes training by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.56 | $4.68 |
| 09-29 08:03 | OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $18.48 |
| 09-29 08:02 | OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $17.40 |
| 09-29 08:02 | OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $156.50 |
| 09-29 08:01 | OpenAI resumes training by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $33.20 |
| 09-29 07:51 | ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? | BUY | 0.979 | $15.43 |
| 09-29 07:51 | ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? | BUY | 0.978 | $24.21 |
| 09-29 07:50 | ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? | BUY | 0.972 | $19.54 |
| 09-29 07:43 | ChatGPT Full Outage by September 30? | BUY | 0.959 | $19.18 |