PolyBot

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Traders

OneBadBet

0x84f820558e744c1debe52f499a919c115c3b0ff2

Realised P&L
$-11.4k
Volume
$1.60M
Markets traded
1,460
Open portfolio
$26.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,460
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration10.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9130.935$2.8k+$65.01
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.9380.974$2.4k+$87.86
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes0.7900.839$2.0k+$111.60
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8620.925$1.9k+$125.00
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? · No0.9630.982$1.4k+$26.90
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · No0.9220.936$1.4k+$20.86
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.6930.830$1.3k+$207.37
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8160.835$1.3k+$28.75
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.8240.935$1.2k+$139.21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · No0.9610.991$1.2k+$34.32
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? · No0.9730.996$995.50+$22.50
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · No0.9320.945$945.00+$12.50
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No0.9220.920$920.00$2.50
Iran Nuke before 2027? · No0.9430.945$699.56+$1.19
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? · No0.9200.930$608.45+$6.40

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-25 00:33Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.9753478261$224.33
08-25 00:33US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?BUY0.9726008065$241.21
08-25 00:31US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?BUY0.9675081967$200.66
08-25 00:27Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?BUY0.9601413523$439.34
08-11 23:57Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?SELL0.997$498.50
08-07 23:41Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.953$666.15
08-07 23:27Iran leadership change by August 15?BUY0.979$342.65
08-07 23:23Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.84$420.00
08-07 23:23Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?BUY0.973$973.00
08-07 23:20Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?BUY0.99$92.13
08-07 23:17Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?BUY0.91$355.04
07-24 22:09Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.957$298.66
07-24 22:09Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.91$455.00
07-24 22:06Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY0.9549959177$219.90
07-24 22:00Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.994$248.49