OneBadBet
0x84f820558e744c1debe52f499a919c115c3b0ff2
- Realised P&L
- $-11.4k
- Volume
- $1.60M
- Markets traded
- 1,460
- Open portfolio
- $26.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,460
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration20.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.3kat 0.300Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?
- +$2.0kat 0.071Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration?
- +$819.05at 0.184Will Donald Trump be named in Epstein files?
- +$702.89at 0.976Lily Phillips sex event cancelled?
- +$694.06at 0.009Another commercial airline evacuation before March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 00:33 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.9753478261 | $224.33 |
| 08-25 00:33 | US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? | BUY | 0.9726008065 | $241.21 |
| 08-25 00:31 | US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? | BUY | 0.9675081967 | $200.66 |
| 08-25 00:27 | Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary? | BUY | 0.9601413523 | $439.34 |
| 08-11 23:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | SELL | 0.997 | $498.50 |
| 08-07 23:41 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | BUY | 0.953 | $666.15 |
| 08-07 23:27 | Iran leadership change by August 15? | BUY | 0.979 | $342.65 |
| 08-07 23:23 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $420.00 |
| 08-07 23:23 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.973 | $973.00 |
| 08-07 23:20 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.99 | $92.13 |
| 08-07 23:17 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $355.04 |
| 07-24 22:09 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.957 | $298.66 |
| 07-24 22:09 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $455.00 |
| 07-24 22:06 | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9549959177 | $219.90 |
| 07-24 22:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.994 | $248.49 |