spongebobs
0x821febe09ea9331bbd3522b4ba2c325724d1f9c3
- Realised P&L
- $3.4k
- Volume
- $62.3k
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $8.9k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.706Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$616.34at 0.854Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?
- +$365.50at 0.743Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$250.57at 0.861Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
- +$232.01at 0.930Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 18:00 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3709999883 | $8.00 |
| 10-21 18:59 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.9216246007 | $340.00 |
| 10-21 18:58 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | BUY | 0.716104391 | $300.00 |
| 10-21 18:58 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.6018527196 | $500.00 |
| 10-21 18:58 | Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.9748298479 | $1.1k |
| 10-21 18:58 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.4751707981 | $500.00 |
| 10-21 18:58 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.8599999998 | $500.00 |
| 10-21 18:57 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.27 | $500.00 |
| 09-18 19:12 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? | BUY | 0.9659999975 | $100.00 |
| 09-18 19:12 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | BUY | 0.9652374557 | $100.00 |
| 09-18 19:12 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.7899999968 | $100.00 |
| 09-18 19:11 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | BUY | 0.9499999991 | $100.00 |
| 09-18 19:11 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | BUY | 0.8599999983 | $100.00 |
| 09-18 19:11 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.7899999968 | $100.00 |
| 07-19 21:29 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.3052500063 | $122.10 |