0x81e7a2ab8E6268009643Da1CAb2368adb0457389-1774921607278
0x81e7a2ab8e6268009643da1cab2368adb0457389
- Realised P&L
- $805.69
- Volume
- $48.4k
- Markets traded
- 386
- Open portfolio
- $647.91
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded386
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$221.47at 0.652Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?
- +$163.18at 0.504Databricks vs Salesforce - higher valuation on June 30?
- +$68.51at 0.717Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
- +$60.18at 0.524Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
- +$50.60at 0.219Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 15:24 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $41.90 |
| 06-30 14:53 | Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? | SELL | 0.99 | $41.60 |
| 06-30 02:33 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $45.00 |
| 06-27 16:21 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $279.45 |
| 06-26 02:46 | Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $44.62 |
| 06-26 02:12 | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | SELL | 0.36 | $4.55 |
| 06-26 02:04 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.59 | $29.50 |
| 06-26 02:04 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | SELL | 0.49 | $24.50 |
| 06-26 01:16 | OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | SELL | 0.72 | $16.39 |
| 06-26 00:45 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.24 | $82.42 |
| 06-23 15:12 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $200.75 |
| 06-19 21:19 | OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.60669 | $24.27 |
| 06-19 20:16 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6739007861 | $49.72 |
| 06-19 20:16 | Will OpenAI have the third highest private market valuation on June 30? | SELL | 0.9806096 | $49.03 |
| 06-19 20:12 | Anthropic IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.2397368073 | $90.63 |