0x7da9fefeb549ca86c2a4da0a09e15ce42c1f5741
- Realised P&L
- $25.92
- Volume
- $854.90
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $78.22
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration77.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? · Yes | 0.117 | 0.081 | $20.76 | −$9.24 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.335 | $18.61 | −$1.39 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.380 | 0.525 | $14.51 | +$4.01 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.655 | $13.37 | +$3.37 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.334 | 0.366 | $10.97 | +$0.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.84at 0.537Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?
- +$5.84at 0.644Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in September?
- +$-0.34at 1.035US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
- +$-0.49at 0.172Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?
- +$-0.97at 0.595Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 11:51 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | SELL | 0.23 | $6.97 |
| 09-15 23:46 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | SELL | 0.25 | $5.45 |
| 09-15 13:41 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | BUY | 0.1499999993 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 13:38 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September? | SELL | 0.137 | $1.50 |
| 09-15 05:58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.76 |
| 09-15 05:56 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | BUY | 0.1059999996 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 05:32 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | BUY | 0.276 | $2.26 |
| 09-13 06:49 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3799999993 | $10.50 |
| 09-12 14:36 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | BUY | 0.3299999924 | $10.00 |
| 09-11 05:42 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? | BUY | 0.1049999992 | $10.00 |
| 09-10 23:57 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | BUY | 0.339 | $4.61 |
| 09-10 23:54 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? | BUY | 0.3599999971 | $10.00 |
| 09-10 23:48 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? | BUY | 0.3599999971 | $10.00 |
| 09-10 23:41 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.35 | $4.36 |
| 09-10 23:40 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September? | SELL | 0.878 | $12.14 |