0x79a14b2a3eddd65296f6a85158d7eaf1491734b5
- Realised P&L
- $-11.9k
- Volume
- $140.4k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $5.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration89.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.309 | 0.165 | $3.5k | −$3.0k |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? · Yes | 0.531 | 0.205 | $1.0k | −$1.6k |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.255 | $636.90 | +$62.45 |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · Yes | 0.219 | 0.029 | $395.50 | −$2.6k |
| Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? · No | 0.129 | 0.023 | $333.11 | −$1.5k |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.065 | $53.89 | −$145.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$611.21at 0.140Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
- +$69.91at 0.059Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- +$-1.81at 0.110Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
- +$-4.85at 0.298Cuban regime falls in 2026?
- +$-10.41at 0.915Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 07:28 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999998 | $574.46 |
| 08-09 20:15 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BUY | 0.3683732446 | $599.25 |
| 08-08 15:40 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BUY | 0.6687314231 | $1.2k |
| 08-02 10:58 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BUY | 0.5384589442 | $824.33 |
| 08-02 10:33 | 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? | BUY | 0.2188535864 | $3.0k |
| 07-23 20:22 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $5.0k |
| 07-19 08:08 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.305116915 | $1.6k |
| 07-12 18:44 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.1600715603 | $836.82 |
| 07-12 18:44 | US military draft authorized in 2026? | SELL | 0.0312336446 | $285.04 |
| 07-02 18:09 | Ebola pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $472.34 |
| 05-25 19:05 | Ebola pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $539.82 |
| 05-25 10:37 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.0676291709 | $570.21 |
| 05-03 08:49 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0589999999 | $497.45 |
| 04-18 13:11 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999984 | $99.50 |
| 04-18 09:36 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $24.87 |