PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

groppone

0x77500a1651826ef61b2dde9d666851f13179324d

Realised P&L
$998.90
Volume
$255.6k
Markets traded
304
Open portfolio
$249.84

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded304
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration16.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes0.5300.705$42.30+$10.50
Kash Patel out by December 31? · Yes0.1500.175$35.00+$5.00
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? · Yes0.2500.235$23.50−$1.51
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · Yes0.2030.130$19.50−$11.00
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? · Yes0.0710.044$15.90−$9.47
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · Yes0.4000.285$14.25−$5.75
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.1380.035$14.15−$42.45
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3500.135$13.50−$21.50
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes0.2000.075$11.25−$18.75
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes0.1000.055$11.00−$9.00
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027? · Yes0.1000.049$9.70−$10.30
Ebola pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0700.024$9.40−$18.60
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes0.1400.045$9.00−$19.00
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0850.021$6.15−$19.35
US recession by end of 2026? · Yes0.2600.055$5.50−$20.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-22 19:11Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?BUY0.002$1.00
07-22 19:07Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?SELL0.029$0.01
07-20 16:01China x Philippines military clash before 2027?BUY0.01$2.00
07-20 15:55Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?BUY0.007$3.50
07-16 13:45Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?BUY0.18$1.80
07-07 15:56Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?SELL0.83$41.50
07-07 07:05Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?BUY0.79$39.50
07-03 12:19Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?SELL0.079$31.60
07-03 12:17Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.08$16.00
07-02 06:51Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?SELL0.018$1.71
06-30 05:49Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.277$13.85
06-29 08:57US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?BUY0.001$1.00
06-21 15:11Starmer out by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0168549985$16.85
06-15 10:17 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?SELL0.45$45.00
06-14 14:59Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?SELL0.002$0.20