AuthenticDemigod
0x7487d969969767a997d3cbfe8d4aa540b0b6fc0c
- Realised P&L
- $3.9k
- Volume
- $904.3k
- Markets traded
- 324
- Open portfolio
- $12.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded324
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.995Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?
- +$1.4kat 0.558Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?
- +$1.3kat 0.067Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
- +$1.0kat 0.677Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?
- +$685.76at 0.726 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 10:06 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $528.00 |
| 09-16 18:27 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $914.36 |
| 09-16 18:21 | Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31? | SELL | 0.7120886667 | $213.63 |
| 09-16 08:42 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $150.00 |
| 09-14 20:21 | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $406.42 |
| 09-14 20:06 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.15 | $10.50 |
| 09-14 19:37 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $111.57 |
| 09-14 19:27 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1483470833 | $178.02 |
| 09-14 19:22 | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2859518 | $142.98 |
| 09-14 19:22 | Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.2390026564 | $108.87 |
| 09-14 09:13 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $35.00 |
| 09-07 20:17 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $176.00 |
| 09-07 20:14 | Will Linke win the third-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.79785 | $159.57 |
| 09-07 20:10 | Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | SELL | 0.1096601932 | $54.83 |
| 09-04 20:14 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9528849057 | $505.03 |