norulesnvr
0x73b831d248a47fdc49b12a4c1173f409b300f6b5
- Realised P&L
- $10.5k
- Volume
- $4.21M
- Markets traded
- 257
- Open portfolio
- $5.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded257
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.500 | 0.789 | $3.2k | +$1.2k |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.210 | $840.77 | −$1.2k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.835 | $756.26 | +$4.53 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · No | 0.180 | 0.185 | $167.55 | +$4.53 |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.910 | $104.67 | +$2.30 |
| Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · No | 0.900 | 0.966 | $85.61 | +$5.81 |
| Natural Disaster in 2026? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.205 | $41.82 | +$19.63 |
| Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be 1600.00 or higher at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.600 | $16.86 | −$4.78 |
| Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? · No | 0.899 | 0.935 | $13.94 | +$0.53 |
| Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1600.00 at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.157 | 0.470 | $13.20 | +$8.80 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.105 | $2.63 | −$1.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.2kat 0.495Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
- +$6.0kat 0.193Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$5.6kat 0.426Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$4.3kat 0.285Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?
- +$3.3kat 0.518Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 12:53 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $83.00 |
| 09-16 12:51 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | BUY | 0.18 | $18.00 |
| 09-16 09:27 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $336.73 |
| 09-16 09:26 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $332.00 |
| 09-16 09:26 | Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | BUY | 0.18 | $145.03 |
| 07-28 14:47 | Natural Disaster in 2026? | BUY | 0.1087745098 | $22.19 |
| 07-28 14:46 | Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $26.70 |
| 07-28 14:46 | Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | BUY | 0.9 | $79.80 |
| 07-28 14:44 | Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $22.25 |
| 07-28 14:43 | Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $53.42 |
| 07-26 05:03 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6905886681 | $187.70 |
| 07-07 19:20 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6474348786 | $175.97 |
| 05-29 03:32 | NBA: SGA Award Parlay | BUY | 0.54 | $20.05 |
| 05-29 03:32 | NBA: SGA Award Parlay | BUY | 0.54 | $16.20 |
| 05-29 03:27 | NBA: SGA Award Parlay | BUY | 0.4973515584 | $216.86 |