0xD986dd504838BA41C59d57DD2879406EA73dCAa0-1775966614610
0x71ac8b3014dd832ad19630717fca11cb259fe8e5
- Realised P&L
- $-703.91
- Volume
- $86.4k
- Markets traded
- 118
- Open portfolio
- $3.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded118
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$274.62at 0.670US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
- +$226.80at 0.548Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
- +$146.51at 0.624Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?
- +$122.36at 0.620Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?
- +$61.74at 0.190Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 11:27 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.984 | $154.49 |
| 11-01 11:26 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%? | BUY | 0.9787220253 | $154.64 |
| 10-31 14:20 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.0260165605 | $8.17 |
| 10-31 14:20 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.027 | $1.08 |
| 10-31 14:20 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.027 | $10.80 |
| 10-31 14:20 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.0270003258 | $169.89 |
| 10-31 14:19 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.028 | $0.42 |
| 10-31 14:19 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.028 | $4.14 |
| 10-31 14:19 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.0280016588 | $41.36 |
| 10-31 14:19 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.029 | $0.46 |
| 10-31 14:19 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.029 | $4.61 |
| 10-31 14:19 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL | 0.029 | $46.08 |
| 10-31 09:11 | Will Waymo operate in 28-31 cities on December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.009 | $1.01 |
| 10-31 09:11 | Will Waymo operate in 24-27 cities on December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.0294868 | $2.95 |
| 10-31 09:11 | Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.584 | $58.40 |