PolyBot

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Traders

groth

0x71abe97b83eaba3f06cb04fd4d9a03ee37d2f015

Realised P&L
$146.4k
Volume
$2.62M
Markets traded
518
Open portfolio
$95.5k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded518
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration47.4% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · No0.7690.855$11.6k+$1.2k
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No0.7870.963$10.8k+$2.0k
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8350.835$10.4k+$4.19
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? · No0.8380.988$10.4k+$1.6k
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? · No0.8740.930$7.4k+$455.68
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? · No0.9780.997$5.6k+$107.55
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes0.3400.525$4.6k+$1.6k
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? · No0.8670.966$4.3k+$444.76
Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes0.6031.000$2.7k+$1.1k
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? · Yes0.5341.000$1.9k+$895.37
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.5450.325$1.8k$1.2k
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? · Yes0.1560.545$1.7k+$1.2k
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 · Yes0.1600.130$1.1k$253.48
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? · No0.7700.996$995.50+$225.50
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? · No0.7850.960$975.16+$177.76

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 15:08Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?BUY0.014$139.14
09-16 15:08Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?BUY0.013$112.96
09-15 12:01Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?SELL0.81$499.98
09-15 01:34Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?BUY0.2690517241$624.20
09-15 01:34Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?BUY0.2$168.07
09-14 13:51Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?BUY0.3884895629$128.60
09-13 15:06Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?BUY0.25$57.36
09-12 20:37Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?BUY0.72$772.59
09-12 20:02Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.84$2.1k
09-12 14:36Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?BUY0.29$8.70
09-12 10:35Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?BUY0.21$42.00
09-12 09:38Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?BUY0.8990055765$575.53
09-11 15:45Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?BUY0.1913547382$28.25
09-11 15:38Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?BUY0.1652941176$140.50
09-11 09:40Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?SELL0.87$206.89