groth
0x71abe97b83eaba3f06cb04fd4d9a03ee37d2f015
- Realised P&L
- $146.4k
- Volume
- $2.62M
- Markets traded
- 518
- Open portfolio
- $95.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded518
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$19.2kat 0.880Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$13.9kat 0.182Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$11.2kat 0.533Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$11.1kat 0.858Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$11.0kat 0.216Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 15:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.014 | $139.14 |
| 09-16 15:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.013 | $112.96 |
| 09-15 12:01 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $499.98 |
| 09-15 01:34 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.2690517241 | $624.20 |
| 09-15 01:34 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $168.07 |
| 09-14 13:51 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.3884895629 | $128.60 |
| 09-13 15:06 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.25 | $57.36 |
| 09-12 20:37 | Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $772.59 |
| 09-12 20:02 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $2.1k |
| 09-12 14:36 | Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30? | BUY | 0.29 | $8.70 |
| 09-12 10:35 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.21 | $42.00 |
| 09-12 09:38 | Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | BUY | 0.8990055765 | $575.53 |
| 09-11 15:45 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1913547382 | $28.25 |
| 09-11 15:38 | Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1652941176 | $140.50 |
| 09-11 09:40 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | SELL | 0.87 | $206.89 |