0x6c09fbe5035bfc0a007eea2d9ad10db8ecc425d6
0x6c09fbe5035bfc0a007eea2d9ad10db8ecc425d6
- Realised P&L
- $181.34
- Volume
- $7.0k
- Markets traded
- 187
- Open portfolio
- $144.39
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded187
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? · Yes | 0.336 | 0.585 | $51.96 | +$22.11 |
| Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.977 | $27.07 | +$2.67 |
| Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Fay? · No | 0.980 | 0.982 | $25.07 | +$0.05 |
| Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.345 | $15.46 | −$6.95 |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in New Jersey by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.913 | 0.960 | $11.66 | +$0.56 |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in Massachusetts by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.000 | 0.946 | $6.54 | +$6.54 |
| Will a hurricane make landfall in Rhode Island by November 30, 2026? · No | 0.000 | 0.951 | $5.26 | +$5.26 |
| Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Edouard? · No | 0.980 | 0.998 | $1.37 | +$0.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$108.15at 0.035Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C or below on August 30?
- +$104.64at 0.218Will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall in Japan?
- +$76.37at 0.011Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 99°F or below on August 21?
- +$75.76at 0.029Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 27?
- +$38.54at 0.258Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on September 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-29 23:38 | Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $4.03 |
| 09-24 15:47 | Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026? | SELL | 0.943 | $0.01 |
| 09-24 15:45 | Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 21 and September 25, 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $1.06 |
| 09-22 22:18 | Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on September 23? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.39 |
| 09-22 20:14 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on September 22? | BUY | 0.91 | $18.59 |
| 09-22 13:04 | Will Hurricane Polo peak at Category 5? | BUY | 0.99 | $10.79 |
| 09-22 13:04 | Will Hurricane Polo peak at Category 5? | BUY | 0.99 | $6.13 |
| 09-22 05:54 | Will Hurricane Polo peak at Category 3? | BUY | 0.99 | $11.03 |
| 09-22 05:01 | Will Hurricane Polo peak at Category 3? | BUY | 0.98 | $25.03 |
| 09-22 03:06 | Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on September 22? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.26 |
| 09-22 02:25 | Will Hurricane Polo peak at Category 1 or weaker? | BUY | 0.99 | $14.69 |
| 09-21 21:49 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on September 21? | SELL | 0.21 | $0.80 |
| 09-21 21:48 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on September 21? | SELL | 0.2 | $0.13 |
| 09-21 21:48 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on September 21? | SELL | 0.2 | $0.08 |
| 09-21 18:20 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 21? | BUY | 0.64 | $21.02 |