Waterfall
0x63850ce907044eac77fba13d59f263ade68093f2
- Realised P&L
- $17.8k
- Volume
- $2.63M
- Markets traded
- 1,450
- Open portfolio
- $11.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,450
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration45.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.9kat 0.232Will MrBeast hit 512 million subscribers by July 31?
- +$4.5kat 0.106Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?
- +$2.2kat 0.500Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?
- +$2.2kat 0.786Will MrBeast say "Feastable" or "Feastables" during his next YouTube video?
- +$1.9kat 0.839Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribed" during his next YouTube video?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 19:38 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $700.00 |
| 09-18 16:02 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.88 | $290.39 |
| 09-18 10:35 | Will MrBeast's next video get less than 50 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.1056303868 | $48.78 |
| 09-18 10:29 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? | BUY | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 09-18 09:13 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1? | BUY | 0.18 | $180.00 |
| 09-17 15:56 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40.5 and 41.0 million views on day 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $130.22 |
| 09-17 15:56 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 39.5 and 40.0 million views on day 5? | BUY | 0.999 | $113.07 |
| 09-17 15:56 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40.0 and 40.5 million views on day 5? | BUY | 0.9987816648 | $610.97 |
| 09-17 15:16 | Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40.0 and 40.5 million views on day 5? | BUY | 0.9834046251 | $756.51 |
| 09-17 00:25 | Will MrBeast say "Contestant" during his next YouTube video? | SELL | 0.84 | $31.92 |
| 09-17 00:23 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 27, 2026? | BUY | 0.9888814318 | $442.03 |
| 09-17 00:23 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.9888814318 | $442.03 |
| 09-17 00:23 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.9888814318 | $442.03 |
| 09-17 00:22 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.9888814318 | $442.03 |
| 09-17 00:22 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on or prior to September 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.99 | $19.80 |