0x6206f55ed577a4f0fa68eb08537aeda5ff16cf4c
- Realised P&L
- $202.26
- Volume
- $41.8k
- Markets traded
- 482
- Open portfolio
- $497.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded482
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$222.85at 0.209US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$159.09at 0.513MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$146.06at 0.220Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?
- +$130.95at 0.325US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$79.28at 0.056Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 02:06 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 01:51 | Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.6099998542 | $1.59 |
| 09-18 00:20 | Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 00:06 | Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 00:05 | Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.659999953 | $3.09 |
| 09-17 23:51 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on September 18? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 23:51 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.6099998988 | $2.17 |
| 09-17 23:51 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 18? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 23:50 | Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.8799999629 | $1.90 |
| 09-17 23:50 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on September 17? | SELL | 0.948 | $1.12 |
| 09-17 23:45 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on September 17? | SELL | 0.946 | $1.32 |
| 09-17 23:45 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on September 17? | SELL | 0.977 | $0.55 |
| 09-17 23:44 | Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on September 17? | SELL | 0.984 | $1.24 |
| 09-17 23:36 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 23:36 | Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 19? | BUY | 0.5399999607 | $3.02 |