0x53d165b1a453d25a3eba9ca742a0eb390c28904b
0x53d165b1a453d25a3eba9ca742a0eb390c28904b
- Realised P&L
- $9.58
- Volume
- $322.50
- Markets traded
- 109
- Open portfolio
- $8.51
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar3.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded109
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.790 | 1.000 | $2.53 | +$0.53 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.325 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.345 | $1.23 | +$0.23 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.710 | 0.745 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.730 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.215 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.375 | $0.52 | −$0.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.72at 0.218Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?
- +$3.51at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?
- +$3.49at 0.371Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?
- +$3.13at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 23:33 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 15:32 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 18:22 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 10:12 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 06:26 | Will OpenRouter process between 160T and 165T tokens the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 21:25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 11:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 02:47 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 18:19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 09:42 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 01:40 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 12:21 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 04:01 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 07:59 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 23:58 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $63 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |